Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041025 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 623 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER NIGHT. FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS HAVE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALLOWS SOME RETURN FLOW. FOR TODAY...THESE RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW...REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS. FOR TONIGHT...ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...AND BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT...AND CORFIDI VECTORS FOR STORM MOTION BEING WEAK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COMPONENT SOUTH OF EAST...WILL CONFINE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IS MARGINAL AND WILL OMIT FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES OVER NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALSO KEEPING POPS IN THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE REGIONS IN OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS. CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT INITIATE IN OUR CWA...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS INDICATE STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS IS TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY...AND HAVE ONLY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SPC KEEPS ANY RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WELL NORTH AND WEST FOR THE CWA. IN THE MEANT TIE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS...WITH THE LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP OUT OF THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY... VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE. NO THUNDER. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BEING VFR CEILINGS 5000-8000 FEET INTO THE NORTH...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER... AFFECTING PKB AND CKB. OTHERWISE...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV

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