Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171756 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 156 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY MAY HERALD A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 10AM UPDATE... COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...BUT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...WILL KEEP LOW END POPS GOING. OTHERWISE...JUST GAVE THE TEMPERATURES SOME TLC...WITH A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAX TEMPS TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WEAK COLD FRONT...MAINLY A MOISTURE FRONT...CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...PRECEDED BY A ZONE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THE AREA COVERAGE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS...FOR NOW LEFT INHERITED IDEA INTACT AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE WRFARW. ALSO LEFT A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN TODAY...NOTHING HEAVY OR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS FORESEEN. THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA SLOWLY FORM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW BUILDS IN OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. LOWER SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO PUSH S INTO THE AREA SO THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BLENDED IN THE MET FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH LEAVES THE FCST CLOSE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MET...LOWS OF WHICH WERE BLENDED IN FOR TONIGHT FOR LITTLE CHANGE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...LIFTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND WITH OVERALL DECENT FLOW...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ALONG WELL. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS INITIALLY. THUS...AT THIS POINT...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WATER ISSUES. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOR COOLER WEATHER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF CWA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH BOTH FEATURES...AND TRIED TO HINT AT A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK 500MB RIPPLES THAT SHOULD AT LEAST BRING SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHOWERS EXIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LATE VALLEY FOG...FOR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS IS NOT A PERFECT SET UP HERE IN APRIL WITH WATER TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD...BUT RECENT RAIN LEAVING A MOIST SURFACE WILL AID IN THE LATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN/12 SATURDAY...A LOW LEVEL LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW COULD BRING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN BKW. OTHERWISE...VFR IS THE NORM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION AS SEEN BY THE CONSISTENCY CHART BELOW. ALSO...IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT BKW. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H H H M H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H M M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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