Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170738 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 338 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARM FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY MAY HERALD A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WEAK COLD FRONT...MAINLY A MOISTURE FRONT...CROSSES THE AREA TODAY...PRECEDED BY A ZONE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THE AREA COVERAGE WARRANTS LIKELY POPS...FOR NOW LEFT INHERITED IDEA INTACT AS IT HAS SUPPORT FROM NEAR TERM MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE WRFARW. ALSO LEFT A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN TODAY...NOTHING HEAVY OR STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS FORESEEN. THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA SLOWLY FORM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW BUILDS IN OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. LOWER SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO PUSH S INTO THE AREA SO THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...BLENDED IN THE MET FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH LEAVES THE FCST CLOSE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED MET...LOWS OF WHICH WERE BLENDED IN FOR TONIGHT FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...LIFTING A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...AND WITH OVERALL DECENT FLOW...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ALONG WELL. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE WV LOWLANDS INITIALLY. THUS...AT THIS POINT...NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY WATER ISSUES. UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOR COOLER WEATHER.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF CWA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH BOTH FEATURES...AND TRIED TO HINT AT A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK 500MB RIPPLES THAT SHOULD AT LEAST BRING SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR TO BEGIN. LIGHT SHOWERS W OF THE OHIO RIVER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL START TO MAKE THEIR MOVE AROUND 08-09Z...AND IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAWN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK FRI AFTERNOON. AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY RETURN BRIEFLY TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS FRI EVE...AND OVERNIGHT FRI NT IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW FRI MORNING AND GENERALLY LIGHT W TO NW FRI AFTERNOON...AND THEN CALM FRI NT. LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW FRI AND FRI NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR IN SHRA FRI MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/17/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... FOG MAY FORM IN SRN WV VALLEYS AND WV MOUNTAINS 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY AND CAUSE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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