Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 051038 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 630 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE. ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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6 AM UPDATE. TRIMMED BACK POPS/THUNDER POTENTIAL A LITTLE ON NORTHERN CONVECTION THIS MORNING...PER RADAR/HI RES MODEL TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE SLOWLY THIS PERIOD...BUT SO DOES THE MOISTURE. WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS TO OUR NORTH WITH LITTLE DIRECT EFFECT FROM IT IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SQUEEZE THROUGH THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO AND FAR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN OHIO FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...WILL LIKELY INITIATE PRE DAWN CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA EARLY TO MID MORNING WITH THE DISTURBANCE. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY...TAPERING TO LOWER CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS WE GET PAST THE FAVORED DIURNAL TIME FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION NORTH WILL BE OVER AROUND MID MORNING. CONVECTION THEREAFTER WITH BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WITH NO FOCUSING MECHANISM...MOST OF THE LOW LANDS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TODAY WITH A WARMER START TO THE DAY...IN THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S. I FOR TONIGHT...ALMOST LIKE A SUMMER SCENARIO. ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRANQUIL...BUT RATHER MOIST AND QUITE MILD NIGHT... WITH MINS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. UPPER RIDGE STILL IN CONTROL...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES A TOUCH MORE DOMINANT. THEREFORE...BEST FORCING WILL BE FROM THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES IN THE HIGHLANDS OF THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE BULK OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S...SO THIS WILL RAISE THE LOWER LIMIT ON THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE INCREASED SURFACE DRYING WILL LEAD TO A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. IT IS NOT GOING TOO FAR TO CALL THIS A HEAT WAVE RELATIVE TO THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE IN THE 10-15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL TERRITORY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LONG TERM PERIOD BY BLENDING IN WPC GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION FIRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY... THRU 00Z. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THRU 13Z...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THEREAFTER...WITH EAST TO WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL AND MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH. GIVEN ALL THIS...ANY SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE HIGH BASED. SO EXPECT VFR AOA 4500 FEET AGL TO PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT BRIEFLY LOWER IN A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 00Z...SHOWERS RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 7000-10000 FEET AGL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF AND WHERE IT RAINS...THESE MAY BE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JMV

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