Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181812 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 212 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSING MONDAY HERALDS A PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER...AS IT IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW TROUGH AXIS AND A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH TRACK FROM OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONFLUENCE INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AFTER 06Z...FIRST HITTING THE TUG FORK VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVIER RAIN PATCHES POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY PASSING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL THETA E CONVERGENCE. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOWS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE STOUT...WITH A SOMEWHAT RARE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET THAT COULD PEAK OUT IN THE 65KT RANGE. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK QUITE INTERESTING...BUT DRYING BELOW 900MB IN THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE DEWPOINTS DOWN AND THUS ELIMINATE THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY. KEEP THE INSTABILITY CONFINED TO THE TUG FORK VALLEY AREA AGAIN...AND ONLY HAVE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS REGION. ALSO OF NOTE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP LOADING AS WELL. KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND THE WARM FRONT...AND DOWN TOMORROW GIVEN THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/RAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING RATHER GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...AND LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. STILL AT THIS POINT NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT FLOODING ISSUES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE A RATHER DECENT SOAKER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON SUNDAY...AND AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT THIS STILL REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. FOR TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...BUT DID KEEP THE WV LOWLANDS WARMER DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN TAKES HOLD FOR MID WEEK AS UPPER LOW LINGERS ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA TO START THE LONG TERM...AND HAVE DECREASING POPS MONDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES IN THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND HAVE SOME PERIODS OF CHANCE POPS. MODELS ALSO SHOWING A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT/UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE DICTATED BY THE INCOMING MOISTURE...AND MODIFIED BY THE PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST 20-30KTS INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACTUALLY HELP TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN...AND WILL ALLOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE RAIN TO BE HANDLED BY TEMPOS LATER. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL KEEP CRW TO CKB CEILINGS ABOVE 3KFT FOR THE MOST PART DURING RAIN...WITH ENOUGH MIXING FROM THE WIND TO KEEP THE FOGGY/LOW CEILINGS FROM FORMING. FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER FOR HTS AND PKB...MVFR IS MORE LIKELY...WITH BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS OUT OF THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS. AT EKN...THIS WILL BE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPING AS WELL. BKW WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR IN EARLY ONSET MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOSS OF IFR CKB AND EKN FIRST THING THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING AND HEIGHT OF STRATOCU CIGS AT BKW COULD VARY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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