Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 012102 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 502 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HEADS EAST TONIGHT. WARM FRONT THURSDAY. WAVE ALONG STRONG FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. COOLER SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH NARY A CLOUD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE BY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN PLACE. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST OHIO...CREATING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...AND DRIVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS WILL BE IN SE OHIO...BUT HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THICKER CLOUDS DOES CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST ON THURSDAY HIGH TEMPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL NEW GUIDANCE...IN FACT THE MAV WENT FROM LOW 80S FOR CRW A COUPLE RUNS AGO TO UPPER 60S WITH THE RECENT 12Z RUN. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE IS RUNNING QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE RAW OUTPUT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...OPTED TO BLEND IN SOME OF THE WARM BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS...ENDING UP 2 OR 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN MOS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT 250 MBS...ONE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING THROUGH SRN INDIANA INTO OHIO BY 06Z FRIDAY. ANOTHER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 12Z GFS FURTHER SOUTH ON THAT SUPPORT FRIDAY...COMPARED TO THE 12Z NAM. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES BY 06Z FRIDAY AND REMAINS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT PASSING PKB-HTS AROUND 00Z SATURDAY...THEN QUICKLY REACHING EKN-BKW BY 03Z/04Z SATURDAY. WITH SUPPORT ALOFT...HAVE ONE HEAVIER BATCH OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FIGURED FOR OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT IN OUR OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES INCLUDING SE OH AND NE KY. I LOT OF LEFTOVERS SHOULD LINGER FRIDAY MORNING. SECOND BATCH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE ITS HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM NORTH CENTRAL WV SW TO HTS VCNTY. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS ON FRIDAY....DESPITE MINIMUM INSTABILITY AND THE LEFTOVER CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING...STILL CONCERNED SOME OF THAT WIND MAY MIX DOWN IN THE SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WOULD NOT NEED T. THE GUSTY WIND THREAT MAY BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL AXIS. WILL ADD THE 2 CONCERNS TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL IN . STILL THINKING ABOUT 2 INCHES OF RAIN STORM TOTAL WOULD BE NEEDED FOR HIGH WATER CONCERNS. IF THE ROUNDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFFECT THE SAME AREAS AS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...WE COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE THAT OUT. ALSO...SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SHOWERS AS THE WAVE ORGANIZES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HELD ONTO HIGHER POPS A BIT LONGER IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. WE STILL HAVE ON EITHER SIDE OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUM AOB 3500 FEET IN THE WV MOUNTAINS FOR 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. CLEARING DEVELOPS SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OF COURSE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. FRIDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES A DRY CLOSE TO THIS UPCOMING EASTER WEEKEND. A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N AND GETS CLOSE TO THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA SUN NT...BEFORE RETREATING N ON MON. THIS CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER. MODELS CONCUR ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W MON NT AND TUE. AFTER THAT...THOUGH...MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PRESENT THE SLOWER SOLN...WITH THE LOW CENTER DEGENERATING INTO SEVERAL WEAKER FLAT WAVES PASSING JUST N OF THE CWA THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. IT HAS A NEW LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST REACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...12Z THU DAY 8...WHICH THEN CROSSES THE CWA DAY 9. THE FASTER GFS HAS THE ORIGINAL LOW CENTER PLUGGING RIGHT ALONG...PASSING N OF THE AREA TUE NT...AND DRAGGING ITS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE WPC MAPS FOLLOW THE ECMWF BUT THEIR POPS AND OTHER ELEMENTS REFLECT MORE OF A BLEND...AS DOES THIS FCST. THIS ALL HINGES ON HOW MUCH ENERGY FROM WRN CONUS TROUGHINESS SCOOTS E. THE GFS QUICKLY SCOOTS A PIECE OF IT E...ALLOWING RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE DAY 7. THE ECMWF TRIES TO BRING THE BULK OF THE TROUGH EWD...BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED PRETTY MUCH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. BLENDED IN WPC AND BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND FOR HIGHS MON. HAVE LOWS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SAT NT...AND HIGHS A BIT HIGHER FOR EASTER SUNDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE BEYOND MON WITH PREVIOUS FCST ACCEPTED FOR HIGHS TUE-WED.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH AM EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SE OHIO...AND COULD GET MVFR IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. DID MENTION VCTS AT HTS AND PKB. VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY GET BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... FUEL MOISTURE GENERALLY RUNNING UNDER 10 PERCENT ACCORDING TO RAWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENHANCED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD. FORTUNATELY...WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR EAST. EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WILL STILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WETTING RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...MZ FIRE WEATHER...MZ

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