Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262326 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 726 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... CHILLY NORTH FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY TUESDAY. SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATE... NO CHANGES THIS EVENING. LOW STRATUS HAS EXITED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE WILL SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE LAST STRATUS HOLDOUTS IN SE WV/SW VA. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL TRY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS LEADS TO SOME FROST CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN NE KY/SE OH/AND THE WV LOWLANDS. CURRENT BELIEF IS THAT THIS WONT BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE FOR A HEADLINE. ALSO COMPLICATING MATTERS IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV. THUS...WILL ROLL WITH PATCHY WORDING IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVERNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...A FAST MOVING S/W TROF WILL PIVOT DOWN WITHIN OVERALL MEAN TROF. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AMID STEEPENING LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE SCT SHRA...ESPECIALLY THE N MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP JUST ISOLATED WORDING OVER THE C AND S WV LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP NE KY/SW VA DRY. MAINLY LOOKING AT SOME CELLULAR SPLASH AND DASH TYPE SHRA. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS PROBABLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE IN SNOW FLAK FORM AND HAVE AROUND A TENTH OF ACCUMULATION AT SNOWSHOE. LOOKING AT QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE...SO AFTER SOME MORNING SUN...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE AFTN. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS CLEARING IN ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN AND CAUSES WINDS TO GO CALM IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...SOME FROST IS A POSSIBILITY...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLY VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH OF OUR REGION IS EFFECTED BY IT. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF POPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... YET ANOTHER BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKES OVER. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES GETS INGESTED INTO THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...WHICH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM IN THE GFS AND EURO MODELS BEFORE GETTING KICKED OUT OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING RAIN WITH LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE AREA...WILL LEAVE JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A BIT OF UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL NOT PUT ANY SNOW IN AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THEREAFTER...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT NO EXTREMES. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW STRATUS HAS EXITED BKW. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR EKN FROM 09Z TO 13Z MONDAY. LOW END VFR CLOUDS FORM MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SOUTH. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE -SHRA IN 6SM WILL PREVAIL. OTHER LOCATIONS LIKE CKB DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CHANCES FOR PREVAILING -SHRA...AND WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY ADD THIS IN...BUT AGAIN...THINKING WILL BE REMAINING VFR. WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST TO 20KTS FOR THE NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR AT EKN MAY NOT DEVELOP OR THE HOURS WILL VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 04/27/15 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...26

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