Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 260806 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 406 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH TODAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. DRY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE LOW THAT DROVE YESTERDAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS HEADING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO MID MORNING. MAY EVEN GET SOME SUNSHINE LATER TODAY...AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...PUSHING TEMPS TO A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 IN THE LOWLANDS WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX ROTATE IN FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS NORTHERN WV WITH THIS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY APPROACH THE UPPER END OF THE FROST THRESHOLD...BUT THINK SOME WIND WILL ALSO REMAIN SO DID NOT PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION MAKERS DURING THIS PERIOD IN THIS WET MONTH OF APRIL. 2 500 MB SHORT WAVES IN THE COLDER N/NW FLOW. THE FIRST SHOULD BE EXITING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 12Z MONDAY WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE. SECOND ONE DROPS INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AOB 10 THSD FT UNDER MID LEVEL CAP. COULD NOT RULE OUT A DUSTING OF SNOW AOA 4000 FEET INTO MONDAY EVENING. THINKING THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL TEND TO THIN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. YET STILL IN THE 850 MB THERMAL TROF THOUGH...SO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE. THIS MAKES MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT. HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWLANDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE FROST THRESHOLD. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR DAWN TUESDAY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT CERTAINLY NOT A SURE BET. NO MAJOR CHANGES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING...STILL DRY. NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB CLOSED LOW ONLY SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARD US TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS. WILL TRY TO DELAY INCREASING POPS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO FOLLOWING THE SAME TREND...BUT EXITING EARLIER THAN THE LOW CIGS. FARTHER NORTH...CURRENTLY HAVE VFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS WITH MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 04/26/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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