Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 020209 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1009 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A WARMING TREND. THE HIGH YIELDS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1000 PM UPDATE... ADDED FG TO WX GRIDS FOR SOME OF THE RIVER VALLEYS AROUND DAWN. 730 PM UPDATE... A COUPLE -SHRA OVER THE WV MTNS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HR. EXPECT SKY TO BE MAINLY CLR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS TOWARD DAWN. HAVE INCORPORATED SOME LOWER NUMBERS FOR OUR TYPICAL COLD OUTLYING AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WITH BL WINDS SLACKENING AND SFC DECOUPLING...THINK LATE RIVER VALLEY FG IS IN THE CARDS...ESPECIALLY IN WV ZONES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BRINGING CALM FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A STRATO CU LAYER OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON DIURNAL CU IS POSSIBLE DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THIS PERIOD FEATURES DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY DRIFTS E OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NT...ALLOWING A SW FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD. WEAK SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CROSS BUT...WITH NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A LITTLE MID OR HIGH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. A WEAK TRANSIENT REX BLOCK FORMS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF NRN STREAM RIDGING ONE OF THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGHS PASS...FURTHER EVIDENCE FOR A DRY FCST. THIS REX BLOCK BREAKS DOWN MON AS A WEAK NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CONVECTION THROUGH LATE MON AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY TO THE NW OF THE FCST AREA. BLENDED IN CONSENSUS MOS FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER LOWS SAT NT AND SUNDAY NT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER DEW POINT FCST. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOKED GOOD IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE...EDGED HIGHS MON DOWN A TAD BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WITH GREENUP...LIGHT FLOW AND ONLY 10C AT H85. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE ECMWF FROM YESTERDAY REPRESENTED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND...SO USED A BLEND OF IT WITH THE NAEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN AS THE BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. THIS WOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. IN ADDITION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MID WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE LOCATION OF THIS FRONT IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THE MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY. SOME MODELS KEEP THE FRONT COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE SOME BRING IT SOLIDLY INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE FRONT IS LOW. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR THIS EVENING UNDER A CLEARING SKY. BL WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AND SFC WINDS SHOULD GO CALM MOST TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LATE RIVER VALLEY FG FORMATION DURING THE PREDAWN HRS WITH KBKW ALSO GETTING IN ON THE ACTION. HI RES MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT A FEW HRS OF IFR OR WORSE RIVER FG. HAVE CODED UP SOME IFR/VLIFR FG AFTER 09Z FOR MOST TERMINALS...SAVE FOR KHTS. MORING RIVER FG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. SOME DIURNAL CU COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE JUST SOME PASSING MID AND HI CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF RIVER VALLEY FG IS QUESTION AND MAY NOT MATERIALIZE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 05/02/15 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M L L L L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L H H AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/RPY NEAR TERM...ARJ/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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