Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161858 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONT PASSES TONIGHT/FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THIS LAST WAVE OF DECAYING CONVECTION...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COOL FRONT WITH A MARKED WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ENTERS SOUTHEAST OHIO AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...SLOWLY PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST VIA INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PARAMETERS THAT THE FRONT COULD HANG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE LOW CHANCES FOR NON SEVERE THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE DRYING OUT TOMORROW...WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY. CONTINUE TO USE A WARMER ADJUSTMENT TO THE MOS NUMBERS TONIGHT AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS HAVE SHOWN TO BE CONSISTENTLY COOL. EVEN THE BIAS CORRECTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ACCOUNTING ENOUGH FOR THE LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTH INTO THE IL SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECTS WARM FRONT FEATURE BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS CLOSE TO CATEGORICAL WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...GENERALLY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE MID 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY WITH COPIOUS PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE LONGER TERM IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO HAVE SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AS VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BLENDED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL EXIT LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP PREVAILING CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BRINGING MORE SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET. WIND VELOCITIES DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING TO BELOW 12KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED BRIEF MVFR AT BKW...OR IN SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M M M M M M H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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