Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250804 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 403 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT. SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES. SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO LOWS TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925 MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP. WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA. A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL. PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST. TOO MARGINAL AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES. THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH THESE...AND COULD EVEN GET BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. COULD GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS BUT AGAIN LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN DIMINISHES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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