Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 040634 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 211 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER NIGHT. FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MODELS HAVE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALLOWS SOME RETURN FLOW. FOR TODAY...THESE RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BRINGING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A RATHER SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW...REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO A FEW MID 80S IN THE LOW LANDS. FOR TONIGHT...ANY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME ORIENTED WEST TO EAST...AND BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE FRONT...AND CORFIDI VECTORS FOR STORM MOTION BEING WEAK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COMPONENT SOUTH OF EAST...WILL CONFINE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE FAR NORTH LATER TONIGHT. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER IS MARGINAL AND WILL OMIT FOR NOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AN APPROACHING FRONT DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MODELS DO INDICATE AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMING UNDER THE DIRTY UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE OF A FACTOR. THE LEAST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND AND SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. IN ANY CASE...THERE IS NO REAL GOOD FOCUS TO GO MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AREAS AFOREMENTIONED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN CONTROL. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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06Z MONDAY THRU 06Z TUESDAY... VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A STRAY MOUNTAIN SHOWER POSSIBLE. NO THUNDER. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT WILL BEING VFR CEILINGS 5000-8000 FEET IN THE NORTH...WITH POSSIBLY A SHOWER... AFFECTING PKB AND CKB. OTHERWISE...SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/04/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...JMV

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