Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 192008 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 405 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING MORE HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR TO CREEP FURTHER EAST. COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS...FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE BEEN WRESTLING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD GIVEN THE FAST FLOWS THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS AND THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO THROW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE AREA WITH AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT RAIN. SO...THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...NOT GETTING THE DEEPER CONVECTION THAT MIGHT OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE. ALSO ASSISTING IN THE SUPPRESSION IS THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING THAT HAS LARGELY CUT OFF THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA. THE EASTERN SLOPES STILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BUT WILL KEEP ANY FLOOD WATCHES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. RAINFALL RATES JUST ARE NOT THERE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OVER TOWARDS THE WESTERN CWA/TRI STATE AREA...THIS IS WHERE SOME CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THIS AREA LIES ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CIRRUS COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME CLEARING RIGHT NOW OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORMS TO ORGANIZE...AND WITH THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SOUTHWESTERLY...THIS WOULD STEER IT TOWARDS THIS PARTICULAR AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT HERE...AND SPC HAS RECENTLY ISSUED A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR THIS AREA. INTO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH AFTER 09Z. HEATING WILL HELP WITH THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT...AND HAVE HIGHER POPS AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR THUNDER BASED ON SURFACE INSTABILITY AFTER 12Z AND IN THE EASTERN CWA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER LOW WILL BE THE CONTROLLING FEATURE THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL END EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST. WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THANKFULLY...THE DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN APPEARS TO CONTINUE. WITH TROFS OFF NORTHWEST COAST AND OVER NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHEAST COAST. THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY WELCOMED. STILL FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE WNW STEERING FLOW THAT CAUSES PROBLEMS HERE WITH DETERMINISTIC POPS HERE. WAS DRIER FOR THE START OF THIS LONG TERM...THINKING WEDNESDAY`S WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC INTRODUCED LKLY POPS SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS WORKING NORTH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING SOUTHERN MOISTURE MOVING NORTH IS LOW. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD IN THE COOLER FLOW AND WIND LIKELY TO MESS WITH OUR FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...BUT HAVE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS...FOR DAWN FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SOUTHEAST WINDS GUST TO 25-35KTS THROUGH 00Z...SUBSIDING SLOWLY TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TURBULENT ENOUGH TO KEEP IFR CEILINGS FROM FORMING...INCLUDING BKW...DESPITE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE SAME LOGIC FOLLOWS THE VISIBILITIES THAT SHOULD ONLY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDER POTENTIAL IS BETTER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS. COVERED THIS WITH VCTS/CB. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING/END MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...26

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.