Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191120 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 720 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS TODAY...BEFORE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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715 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK AS THE RAIN IS MAKING ITS MOVE. PREV DISCN... WARM FRONT OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING ON A WET CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. WRFARW APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE RAIN HAS MADE BETTER NWD PROGRESS OUT TO THE W EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EVEN THERE THE SHOWERS WERE RATHER LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED BACK THROUGH CENTRAL KY. THEREFORE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE S AND W EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A BACK DOOR DOWN THE E COAST...AND A WARM WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WRN TN VALLEY...THE RESULTING TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL MIX TO THE SFC AS THE WARM FRONT GETS CLOSE / MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS TODAY...THESE STRONG WINDS...TO THE TUNE OF 60 KTS OR BETTER AT H85...WILL CREATE THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT...WITH A RAIN SHADOW JUST W OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND ENHANCED QPF E OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE BLUE RIDGE IN PARTICULAR. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WPC SLIGHT RISK AND RNK / LWX THINKING. THE WRFARW HAD BEEN INDICATING HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY BUT NOW KEEPS THE HEAVIEST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING. THE WRFNMM IS HITTING THE POCAHONTAS / RANDOLPH LINE A LITTLE HARD THOUGH. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...TAPERING THE RAIN SHOWERS SW TO NE THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SW PORTION OF FCST AREA THAT COULD THEN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONG FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT IF THERE IS ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THERE. WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION THERE PER PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SWODY1 FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THE CWA WILL TREND DRIER IN THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. USED A MET/MOSGUIDE/WRFARW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND A MET/MOSGUIDE BLEND TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL BUT SUBTLE TIMING ADJUSTMENTS RELATIVE TO PRECIPITATION TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECT THE AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...AND IF ANY BREAKS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN THE CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. MODELS INDICATING 30-40 KTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...SUGGESTIVE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...FZLVS AROUND 8000-9000 FEET SUGGESTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE ON MONDAY AS A RESULT. COLD FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH CALMER...BUT COOLER...WEATHER TAKING HOLD. UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND THIS COMBINED WITH WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AT TIMES...WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... OVERALL...WE LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BEST CHANCE FOR A FROST/FREEZE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO WPC FOR POPS/SKY/HIGH TEMPS. UNDERCUT WPC TEMPS A BIT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BRINGS ON WET WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST CIGS WILL BE FOUND AT BKW ON STRONG AND GU STY SE FLOW...WITH PEAK GUSTS UP AROUND 30 KTS. CIGS THERE COULD GET CLOSE TO IF NOT INTO IFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IN DURATION IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA W OF THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING CRW CKB AND EKN. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HTS TRI STATE AREA THIS EVENING NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT. LLWS CRITERIA BEING MET OR CLOSE TO IT EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT SE SFC FLOW INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING S TONIGHT. MODERATE SE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME STRONG THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME S TO SW TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MARGINAL LLWS THIS MORNING...CRITERIA MAY OR MAY NOT BE MET. ALSO...TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF IFR CEILINGS AND ITS PERSISTENCE AT BKW COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H L L L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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