Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250022 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY. FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO SURPASS LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO +10 NEAR GRUNDY. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL NORTH AND EAST. FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS. A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST. WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL RESULT IN A TREND TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ESPECIALLY SE OHIO AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26 NEAR TERM...30/JMV SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV

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