Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170545 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONT PASSES FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRONT PASSES SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 145 AM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK WITH -SHRA SLOWLY ENCROACHING UPON NW PORTION OF FCST AREA. PREV DISCN... 500 MB VORT MAX MOVING THRU NORTH CENTRAL WV AROUND 00Z. IN ITS WAKE...STILL HAVE A LULL IN SHOWER COVERAGE IN ITS WAKE. THE EXCEPTION IS IN FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING IN THE WARMER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS AIR CREEPING EAST FROM CENTRAL KY AND WESTERN OHIO. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POP 06Z TO 12Z IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AND 12 TO 15Z IN CENTRAL WV ON EAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH WEAK COLD FRONT. AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW BREAKS DOWN 06Z TO 12Z...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO CREEP UP...SO EXPECT LITTLE DROP IN TEMPERATURE IN THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURE MAY RISE 06Z TO 12Z IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST. DRIER AIR REACHES SOUTHEAST OHIO BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. HELD ONTO POPS A BIT LONGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WELCOMED...BUT...BRIEF RESPITE IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER NICE WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THIS TREND HOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT...OPTED TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WILL BE TRACKING A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND PREFRONTAL BAND TO SEND SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. A BIT CONCERNED FOR STRONG TO SVR WX ACROSS SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON GIVE NEG TILT TROF...STRENGTHENING LOW...AND GOOD LLJ. GIVEN SPC PROBS THOUGH...WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF CWA EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE LIKELY POPS WITH BOTH FEATURES...AND TRIED TO HINT AT A BREAK BETWEEN THEM. COOL HIGH PRESSURE THEN ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK 500MB RIPPLES THAT SHOULD AT LEAST BRING SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR TO BEGIN. LIGHT SHOWERS W OF THE OHIO RIVER...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL START TO MAKE THEIR MOVE AROUND 08-09Z...AND IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH DAWN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK FRI AFTERNOON. AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK MAY RETURN BRIEFLY TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS FRI EVE...AND OVERNIGHT FRI NT IN THE SRN MOUNTAINS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW FRI MORNING AND GENERALLY LIGHT W TO NW FRI AFTERNOON...AND THEN CALM FRI NT. LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO NW FRI AND FRI NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR IN SHRA FRI MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 04/17/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... FOG MAY FORM IN SRN WV VALLEYS AND WV MOUNTAINS 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY AND CAUSE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ/30/26 NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...TRM

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