Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221438 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1038 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. DRIER SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MESOSCALE UPDATE 1030 AM UPDATE... COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED SE OH AND MUCH OF N WV AND NE KY...CURRENTLY SLIDING INTO C WV. SOME FAST MOVING GUSTY PREFRONTAL SHRA WORKED THRU WITH SOME GRAUPEL AND WINDS TO 40 MPH. THIS IS WORKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS CURRENTLY. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG ACTUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT WORKS INTO S WV. LOOKING AT QUITE THE DROP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MANY PLACES IN NE KY...SE OH...AND N WV DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH SOME POST FRONTAL SHRA...WHILE TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS MAY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE POST FRONTAL STRATUS SHIFTS E AND SOME SUN BEGINS TO BREAK OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... COLD FRONT ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES THIS MORNING. PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 12Z...AND TO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES 18-21Z. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING...HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...AS EVIDENCED ON AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS...AND THE FACT THAT MANY RETURNS WITNESSED ON RADAR ARE PRODUCING NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. IT IS HOWEVER...PRODUCING BRIEF WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KTS FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS. SO...OVERALL...MAY BE A BIT OF A DELAY BETWEEN WHAT IS SEEN ON THE RADAR...AND WHEN PRECIP HITS THE GROUND. OVERALL...EXPECTING ANOTHER WINDY DAY TODAY ALONG WITH THE -SHRA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...SO...ALTHOUGH GUSTY...SHOULDNT BE AS BAD AS YESTERDAY. COOLER TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH FRONT TO THE EAST AND UPPER TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. COULD BE SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST A FZDZ SCENARIO...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULDNT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR THAT. ALSO...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION TO ALLOW FOR EVEN A RAIN SNOW MIX. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE TRICKY...AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS TOO COLD. NOT LOOKING OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR FROST FORMATION THOUGH AS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THU INTO THU NT. ONE LAST NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS AND AFTERNOON HEATING COULD LEAD TO RENEWED UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV THU EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY FRI MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FROST IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY GIVEN RADIATIVE COOLING IN VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS. TOWARD AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH WIND WITH THE HIGH CENTERED BACK OVER THE TUG FORK...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD DECOUPLE. ALSO...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TO GET THE FROST TO ACTUALLY FORM...ONLY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IT TOWARD DAWN FRI. THE HIGH PROVIDES A NICE DAY FRI BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE E FRI NT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NEWD JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH AXIS TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA FRI NT INTO SAT...AND THEN MINOR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT EVENING...REESTABLISHING THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS THE QUICKEST IN BRINGING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SAT MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST A WET WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA SAT INTO SAT NT. TEMPERATURES MAY GET BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FRI NT BEFORE RECOVERING AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARD DAWN SAT. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN EARLY SAT MORNING...OTHER MODELS ARE DRY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SAT INTO SAT NT AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS S OF THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS NEARLY THAT MUCH THERE ON AN INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SHOT OF RAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST AND HAVE STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH THUNDER MAY OCCUR CLOSE BY TO THE S...ALONG /AND S/ OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. FINALLY...MODELS SUGGESTS COLUMN WILL NOT GET QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS THU AND FRI WERE CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND AND LARGELY ACCEPTED. BLENDED IN CONSENSUS ALL AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT IN THE RAIN. TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER FOR LOWS AGAIN FRI MORNING VIA BLENDING IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW FOR LOWS FRI NT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT TOWARD DAWN...AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE IN. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE AND MEX FOR LOWS A BIT FURTHER UP ABOVE FREEZING AS GFS SOUNDINGS DO NOT COME CLOSE TO SUPPORTING SNOW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE STREAKING ESE OVER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUCH A TIGHT MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STILL PROJECTED ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY HUGE CHANGES. OUR CHANCE POPS WORK A BIT FURTHER NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL HITTING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES HARDER ON THE HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FIGURING AREA WOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG 850 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AS PROJECTED...HAD TO GO LOWER THAN MOS AND WPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY. MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE EXTREME NORTH WITH LESS PCPN COVERAGE. THAT SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SO STILL HAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LARGE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z ECMWF TAKING THAT ENERGY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 12Z GFS. DO HAVE POPS INCREASING BACK INTO CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH GUSTS INCREASING GENERALLY AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AT 12Z...AND EAST OF THE WV MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. EXPECT SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. IN ADDITION...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KCKB. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE 14-21Z TIME PERIOD. GRADUAL CLEARING/LIFTING TO VFR TONIGHT...GENERALLY BY 21Z...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR TONIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...SL

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