Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 221852 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 246 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. DRIER SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS...WITH POST FRONTAL SHRA DISSIPATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND AND DEWPTS TO MIX DOWN WHILE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AT TIMES ACROSS N ZONES WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHSN OVER THE N HIGH TERRAIN. FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM OVER THE LOWLANDS HAS NOW STARTED. THANKFULLY...LINGERING GRADIENT PUFF AND LARGE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FROST AT BAY. SOME CONCERN OVER NE KY AND SW VA...CLOSER TO LIGHTER FLOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE LOCATIONS. UP N...TEMPS TRICKY REGARDING SUB FRZ. THINK GRADIENT WIND WILL KEEP NUMBERS ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE OVER N ZONES...SO NO HEADLINES UP THAT WAY. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE COOL AIR WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WILL BE ABUNDANT OVER PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N THIRD OF WV...WITH MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN S ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THU INTO THU NT. ONE LAST NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS AND AFTERNOON HEATING COULD LEAD TO RENEWED UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV THU EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY FRI MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW FROST IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY GIVEN RADIATIVE COOLING IN VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE CLEAR...CALM CONDITIONS. TOWARD AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH WIND WITH THE HIGH CENTERED BACK OVER THE TUG FORK...ALTHOUGH THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS COULD DECOUPLE. ALSO...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY BE A BIT HIGH TO GET THE FROST TO ACTUALLY FORM...ONLY HAVE A FEW HOURS OF IT TOWARD DAWN FRI. THE HIGH PROVIDES A NICE DAY FRI BEFORE DRIFTING OFF TO THE E FRI NT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NEWD JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH AXIS TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA FRI NT INTO SAT...AND THEN MINOR OUT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SAT EVENING...REESTABLISHING THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS THE QUICKEST IN BRINGING IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW SAT MORNING...BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST A WET WEATHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA SAT INTO SAT NT. TEMPERATURES MAY GET BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FRI NT BEFORE RECOVERING AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARD DAWN SAT. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COLUMN JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN EARLY SAT MORNING...OTHER MODELS ARE DRY UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SAT INTO SAT NT AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS S OF THE AREA. THE NAM BRINGS NEARLY THAT MUCH THERE ON AN INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SHOT OF RAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST AND HAVE STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH THUNDER MAY OCCUR CLOSE BY TO THE S...ALONG /AND S/ OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. FINALLY...MODELS SUGGESTS COLUMN WILL NOT GET QUITE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS THU AND FRI WERE CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND AND LARGELY ACCEPTED. BLENDED IN CONSENSUS ALL AND BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER SAT IN THE RAIN. TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER FOR LOWS AGAIN FRI MORNING VIA BLENDING IN THE MET AND BIAS CORRECTED MAV. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW FOR LOWS FRI NT...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING A BIT TOWARD DAWN...AS THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVE IN. BLENDED IN MOSGUIDE AND MEX FOR LOWS A BIT FURTHER UP ABOVE FREEZING AS GFS SOUNDINGS DO NOT COME CLOSE TO SUPPORTING SNOW SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE STREAKING ESE OVER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUCH A TIGHT MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STILL PROJECTED ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY HUGE CHANGES. OUR CHANCE POPS WORK A BIT FURTHER NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL HITTING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES HARDER ON THE HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FIGURING AREA WOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG 850 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AS PROJECTED...HAD TO GO LOWER THAN MOS AND WPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY. MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE EXTREME NORTH WITH LESS PCPN COVERAGE. THAT SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SO STILL HAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LARGE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z ECMWF TAKING THAT ENERGY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 12Z GFS. DO HAVE POPS INCREASING BACK INTO CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS...20 TO 30 KTS...AT TIMES THRU REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES BECOMING VFR WITH STRATOCU BASES AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FEET. WINDS SLACKEN TONIGHT...BUT STILL A PUFF...WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRATOCU SHOULD BE CONFINED TO N TAF SITES...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR BASES FOR KEKN AT TIMES TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW END VFR STRATOCU ACROSS N TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING PRIME MIXING HRS...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON OVER N TAF SITES COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30/26 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...30

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