Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 160823 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 423 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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POPS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CURRENT RADAR AS OF 08Z SHOWS SHOWERS INCREASING WHICH MEANS THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTENING. MODELS ARE INDICTING TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS TODAY. FIRST ROUND THIS MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. THEN EXPECT A BREAK AND ANOTHER ROUND AFTER 00Z. THE BEST INSTABILITY IS TO THE WEST OVER KENTUCKY...SO DON/T EXPECT ANY THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY DON/T EXPECT TO MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WAS USED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOLLOWS PROVIDING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTH INTO THE IL SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECTS WARM FRONT FEATURE BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF IN THEIR QPF FIELDS. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS CLOSE TO CATEGORICAL WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...GENERALLY CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE MID 50S HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY WITH COPIOUS PRECIPITATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THE LONGER TERM IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO HAVE SOME LOW POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AS VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BLENDED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 18Z. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS TWO WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH. MVFR COULD INCREASE IN AREAS OF THE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CIGS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE GUSTS IN THE TAF AT BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 04/16/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z FRIDAY... BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT VARIOUS TIMES THRU THE WEEK.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...FB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...FB

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