Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300800 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 400 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXITS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING IN A CLEAN SWEEPING FASHION WITHOUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOULD SEE ONLY SOME FLAT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL MIX SOME DRIER AIR BACK TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT EXHIBIT THE LOW DEWPOINTS SEEN BEFORE THE CURRENT FRONT ARRIVED. AVOIDED THE MET GUIDANCE FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS THE ERROR POINTS WERE TOO HIGH FOR THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS. INSTEAD...OPTED FOR THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...BUT MODIFIED HTS AND CRW WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO WARM TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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LAST CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL RAPIDLY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH FANFARE IN THE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THE TRACK OF THE LOW ITSELF BY ALL THE MODELS WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND THUS THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. WILL GENERALLY CONFINE CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS. IN ANY CASE...ANY QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT. CHANGEABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGEST FEATURE...QUITE WARM TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. THIS CHANGE LEADS TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE MEAN SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE TAPPED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE YET TO BE ESTABLISHED WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT...THE RESULT IN GENERAL WILL BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH BY SATURDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. QUITE WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COOLER FRIDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK...IT MAY BE HAMPERED BY SHOWERS ON LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A PESKY DISTURBANCE COMES OUT OF THE S STREAM BEFORE HEIGHTS CAN BUILD. THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING. A THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SEEING SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECTING BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS QUICK LOW LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. BEYOND...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING MIXING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 03/30/15 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M M H M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H H M H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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