Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 250522 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 122 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY. FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO SURPASS LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO +10 NEAR GRUNDY. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY. WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL NORTH AND EAST. FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HAVE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS. A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST. WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH THESE...AND COULD EVEN GET BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. COULD GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WITH THIS BUT AGAIN LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 04/25/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN DIMINISHES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26 NEAR TERM...JMV/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MZ

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