Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 151635 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1235 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLD FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230PM UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS HOUR. SHOWERS ARE SCATTERING OUT...BUT STILL HAVE RAIN FALLING IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COAL FIELDS...UP TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VIRGINIA ZONES DURING THE DAY TODAY AND SPREADING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE TODAY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HEARD. FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE AND POPS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MET AND MAV TEMPERATURES TODAY WHICH WAS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS DRIFT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLEARER CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH CAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KY. BUT THIS INSTABILITY NEVER MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. THEREFORE...CODED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...CAPE VALUES INCREASES OVER THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN UPPER WAVE GENERATE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH MENTION OF THUNDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. DECREASED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SRN STREAM DOMINATES THE CWA EARLY ON...WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE FRI NT INTO SAT. A NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH MAY STILL DIG FAR ENOUGH S TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT AT LEAST INTO THE AREA LATE SAT. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF INTERLUDE OF DRY TO ONLY SCHC POPS AT LEAST ACROSS THE N SAT NT INTO SUN. SRN STREAM UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE DEEP S LATER SUN INTO MON AND CROSSES THE CWA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW PHASING WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW ONCE THAT FEATURE IS PASSED THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A MILLER B TYPE SFC EVOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FADING PRIMARY LOW THROUGH THE AREA SUN NT INTO MON. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRYING DAY 7 NT. TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER EARLY ON BUT OTHERWISE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS WITH NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM WPC INCLUDING THE NEW DAY 7. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR NORTH AND MVFR SOUTH CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE IFR CONDITIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINS. MOVED THE MVFR CIGS FURTHER NORTH INTO KHTS AND KCRW. AFTER 18Z CIGS WILL BECOME VFR IN AND AROUND KCRW...BUT SHOULD STAY MVFR OVER HTS. MVFR CIGS BREAKS UP AFTER 00Z. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY AND AFFECT KBKW...KHTS...AND KCRW. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY OF 15 TO 20 KTS IN KBKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR/LIFR COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND LAST LONGER THAN FORECASTED. HEAVY RAIN COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AT VARIOUS TIMES THRU THE WEEK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...FB/26 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...FB

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