Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 220539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. DRIER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOWING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE STIRRING.
THEREFORE...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
EVERYWHERE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAND
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO WILL
INCREASE THE POPS AND ATTEMPT SOME BETTER TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD IN...BRINGING PRECIP
CHANCES TO AN END BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHILE THEY
DIFFER BY SEVERAL DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.  WENT
CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS AS MET NUMBERS APPEAR TOO
COLD.  LAST OF ALL...WENT CLOSE TO HPC NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES...ANY PRECIPITATION COULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE STREAKING ESE OVER STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUCH A TIGHT MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STILL PROJECTED ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY HUGE CHANGES. OUR CHANCE POPS
WORK A BIT FURTHER NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
STILL HITTING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES HARDER ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

FIGURING AREA WOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG 850 MB TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.  IF
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AS PROJECTED...HAD TO GO LOWER
THAN MOS AND WPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON
SATURDAY.  MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE EXTREME NORTH
WITH LESS PCPN COVERAGE.

THAT SYSTEM EXITS SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.  SO STILL HAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE LARGE CYCLONIC MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. 12Z ECMWF TAKING THAT ENERGY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
12Z GFS. DO HAVE POPS INCREASING BACK INTO CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS WV
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
AT TIMES AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION TODAY...NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER BY 12Z...AND EAST OF THE WV MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KCKB. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...GENERALLY IN THE
14-21Z TIME PERIOD.

GRADUAL CLEARING/LIFTING TO VFR TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 03Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
COULD VARY. TIMING OF LIFTING TO VFR TONIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/22/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL







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