Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 061900 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 300 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. PREVIEW OF SUMMER CONTINUES. SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY IN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR 18Z...W OF APPALACHIANS FRONT STALLED OUT...BUT STILL SINKING SOUTH...EAST OF MOUNTAINS TOWARD EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV. PREVIEW OF SUMMER CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE TEMPS IN THE 50S IN NRN PENNSYLVANIA AT 18Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS A SECONDARY MAXIMUM IN CU DEVELOPMENT E TO W NR MGW WSW TOWARD UNI. WITH THAT ENHANCEMENT OF CU...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP A BIT FURTHER WEST IN OUR NRN WV LOWLANDS...BUT CURRENTLY NOT ACROSS OUT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO BIG CHANGES IN OUR FORECAST...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FLOW AROUND MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER NR HTS-CRW SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO MOVE WEST. HOWEVER...NORTHERN CONVECTION SHOULD STILL MOVE ESE. HAVE AREAS OF FOG MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND IN THE SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH 90 DEGREES IN THE USUAL WARM SPOTS IN SW WV THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH 89 FOR CRW. STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER MOUNTAINS 16-17Z THEN SOME CELLS COULD DRIFT W TOWARD WESTERN LOWLANDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE AS AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HOT HUMID AIR...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE ON SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH KEEPING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW ALONG THE COAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL...SUMMERLIKE PATTERN...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SWEEPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GOOD MOISTURE TAP/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH WITH DECENT FLOW...STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG WELL. DRIER...COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK WIND FLOW CONTINUES. SLOW MOVING CELLULAR CONVECTION MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...BUT COULD DRIFT WEST...OFF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS 21Z TODAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN SRN WV AND SW VIRGINIA 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDS AT 4 TO 7 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG FORMING 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL WV VALLEYS VCNTY CKB TO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FROM ELKINS ON THROUGH POCAHONTAS COUNTY...THEN SSW INTO COAL FIELDS AROUND KI16. FIGURING MOSTLY JUST SOME 3 TO 5 MILES IN FOG/HAZE CRW VCNTY. HAVE CU DEVELOPING AGAIN 14 TO 17Z AT 3 TO 6 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED TO BROKEN WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION BY 17Z OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MOSTLY BETWEEN EKN AND BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEPENDING ON CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS FROM TODAY...FOG FORECAST FOR THE PREDAWN ON THURSDAY MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...KTB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.