Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 051005 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 605 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND THEN CREEP NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE CAROLINA BEACHES BY THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY... IF YOU LIKED YESTERDAY`S TASTE OF SUMMER...THEN PASS YOUR PLATE AROUND FOR A SECOND HELPING. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST AS WARM. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS TAKEN UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES (CONUS). THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING IN A LAYER BETWEEN 5-10KFT AGL. DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD CAUSE THIS MOISTURE TO BLOSSOM INTO AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD BUILD-UPS MORPHING INTO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 50 PERCENT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO SHOWERS WILL EXHIBIT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN QUICK DEMISE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS WE PASS THE PLATE AROUND FOR ANOTHER WARM HELPING OF WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 50. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE REGION NICE AND WARM WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5F-10F WARMER THAN NORMAL. ANY COOLING DURING THE DAY WILL COME FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST CONVECTION WILL FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT SOME MAY LINGER DEEP INTO THE EVENING AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW AND INCREASING PWATS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TURNING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA EASTERLY FOR THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND EASTERLY WIND SHIFT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST WILL COUNTERACT THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW...SHAVING OFF ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MORE STABILITY HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITIES MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY... WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM VCNTY OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK. AS SUCH MODELS WILL LIKELY WAFFLE ON TIMING AND POSITION WITH THIS FEATURE. ANY IMPACT TO OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED PER THE WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THE VERY LEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY MILD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. BY MONDAY WE WILL HAVE HAD A FULL WEEK OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50...THE GROWING SEASON GETTING INTO FULL SWING. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 600 AM EDT TUESDAY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BUILD-UPS AFTER 14UTC/10AM WITH WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON COURTESY OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO HAVE IN PREVAILING GROUP BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE VCSH AT ROA/BCB/BLF WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT EXISTS. AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTEN UP WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR TAF SITES...SUCH AS BCB/LWB...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BEGIN ADDING TO THE TAF SITES ATTM. AT THE VERY LEAST...FOG WILL BE MOST FAVORED IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS THIS PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR UNLIKELY THIS WEEK...BUT MORNING FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS VCNTY OF KBCB AND KLWB. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK. EXCEPTION WILL BE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA WHERE DOWNDRAFT GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PM

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