Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 050338 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1138 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND THEN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...TRACK ONSHORE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1125 PM EDT MONDAY... ANTICIPATE A QUIET WX NIGHT WITH A FEW CLOUDS ARRIVING INTO THE THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN...BUT STILL MAINLY CLEAR. UPDATED GRIDS REFLECT SOME PATCHY RIVER FOG IN THE NEW RIVER VALLEY BY DAWN. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S DEEPER VALLEYS WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION FROM 4PM MONDAY... ON TUESDAY...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE GREATER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASED CLOUDY COVER. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A GREATER POTENTIAL. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...EAST TO A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LYNCHBURG VA TO YADKINVILLE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE OF MONDAY. EXPECT MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFER ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...BUT BELIEVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT HOWEVER... PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.1 INCHES MOUNTAINS TO 1.4 INCHES PIEDMONT. AND WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS EXPECTED...BELIEVE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TURNING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA EASTERLY FOR THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND EASTERLY WIND SHIFT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST WILL COUNTERACT THE EASTERLY FLOW...SHAVING OFF ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MORE STABILITY HOWEVER...AND EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL LOW RIDING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE AN INCREASE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD IN TURN SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INDICATING THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO THE LOW 80S EAST EACH DAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 712 PM EDT MONDAY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST OF HLX TO ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER THREAT OF SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO HAVE IN PREVAILING GROUP BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE VCSH AT ROA/BCB/BLF WHERE THE GREATER THREAT EXISTS. AS THE LOW LVLS MOISTEN UP WE HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNING OVER SOME OF OUR TAF SITES...SUCH AS BCB/LWB...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT TO ADD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL TAF PARAMETERS THIS PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE RAIN SHAFTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR UNLIKELY THIS WEEK...BUT MORNING FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AT THE USUAL SPOTS...KLYH/KDAN/KBCB/KLWB. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS/WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...DS/WP

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