Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 201926 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE 18Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL BREAK QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING AND EXPECTED CAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 40 KTS AND STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. REGIONAL WSR88D IMAGE SHOWED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STRONG 6H PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 214 PM EDT MONDAY... UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT SFC FRONT WORKING ACROSS BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WITH MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED CHANCE POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME CHANCE INTO THE NE PIEDMONT OF VA...WITH LESS COVERAGE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SHEARING OF THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER SE WV TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CONTINUED UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT AXIS SHIFTING MORE OVER THE COAST. NW FLOW MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WED EVENING. UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH IN THE TN VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ARRIVES OVER THE AR/OK BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS SYSTEM EXITS BY SAT NIGHT WITH SUNDAY BEING A DRY AND COOL/MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MOUNTAINS TO 60S EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSUME POSITION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS MONDAY TO KEEP THINGS DRY. NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY WORK SOME SHOWERS OUR WAY BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN CONVECTION TO MVFR AND IFR AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND EXITS THIS EVENING. THERE IS SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET ONCE THE SHOWERS CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THAT ANY LOCATION THAT RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. EXTENDED AVIATION... THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERRUNNING CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. BY SATURDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO FORM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH BEST FORCING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 325 PM EDT MONDAY... AFTER THE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING...WHICH SAW OVER 6 INCHES AT A FEW GAGES IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY NC...RIVERS AND LARGE CREEKS IN THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER ROANOKE VALLEYS HAVE MOSTLY CRESTED OR ARE NEARING CREST THIS AFTERNOON. STAGES ALONG THE MAINSTEM NEW WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DOWNSTREAM FROM RADFORD OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTING THE NEW TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT GLEN LYN. RADFORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS WATER FROM ABOVE CLAYTOR LAKE IS PASSED THROUGH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD YET SEE RIVER FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO SOUTH BOSTON AND FOE LOWER REACHES OF ROANOKE RIVER BUT MINOR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE WORST CATEGORY TO EXPECT. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/KK HYDROLOGY...PC

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