Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 041958 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 358 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND THEN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...TRACK ONSHORE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. FLOW AROUND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS IS BRINGING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS WESTWARD THROUGH THE GA/GC. THE FLOW THEN VEERS SOUTHWEST WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE REACHING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHICAL INFLUENCE IS HELPING TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM ROUGHLY FLOYD VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF SUNSET. TONIGHT...THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKEWISE NOT SURVIVE TOO LONG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANTICIPATE MOST AREAS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ANTICIPATE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO CONDITIONS REALIZED THIS MORNING. LIKEWISE...THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF LAST NIGHT. A MIX OF LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ON TUESDAY...BOTH TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE GREATER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED TODAY. WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASED COVER THAN WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING TODAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS A GREATER POTENTIAL THAN TODAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...EAST TO A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LYNCHBURG VA TO YADKINVILLE NC. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. EXPECT MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY... SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH OUR AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL OFFER ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...BUT BELIEVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT HOWEVER... PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.1 INCHES MOUNTAINS TO 1.4 INCHES PIEDMONT. AND WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS EXPECTED...BELIEVE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TURNING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA EASTERLY FOR THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE TIME...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND EASTERLY WINDSHIFT WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST WILL COUNTERACT THE EASTERLY FLOW...SHAVING OFF ONLY A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MORE STABILITY HOWEVER...AND EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT MONDAY... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL LOW RIDING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WOULD BE AN INCREASE OF DEEPER MOISTURE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHICH WOULD IN TURN SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...INDICATING THAT ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WEST TO THE LOW 80S EAST EACH DAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVING DEVELOPED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CEILING BASES REMAIN IN THE 5KFT TO 10KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN A LAYER OF PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL. A FEW CU HAVE MANAGED TO BREAK THROUGH THE MID LEVEL INVERSION ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF KROA...AND HAVE FORMED INTO SHOWERS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE...SHOWER MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW. EXPECT LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY INSIDE THE RAIN SHAFTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AROUND SUNSET...WHEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE CU FIELD TO DISSIPATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY IN THOSE FEW SPOTS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS. SIMILAR TO MONDAY...CU FIELD WILL REDEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. NOTE...THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE ASOS AT KBLF CONTINUES TO BE SPORADICALLY OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE END OF MAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO BLF TAF. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO TUESDAY EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE RAIN SHAFTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS APPEAR UNLIKELY THIS WEEK...BUT MORNING FOG WILL BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AT THE USUAL SPOTS...KLYH/KDAN/KBCB/KLWB. WINDS OVERALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE BLUEFIELD...KBLF ASOS...IS EXPERIENCING INTERMITTENT OUTAGES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...DS EQUIPMENT...PM

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