Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 021735 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 135 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE EARLY WEEK. OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM EDT SATURDAY... OVERALL A NICE DAY TO START OFF THE WEEKEND. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 9AM. THERE ARE STILL SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE...HOWEVER THAT SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MOST OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT A DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR A BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY OF 100-300 MU CAPE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WANTS TO POP UP A FEW SHOWERS...THEREFORE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT EAST. AS OF 730 AM EDT SATURDAY... DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NORTH EXPIRES AT 13Z. SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. TODAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILDER WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. CONTINUED DRY AND TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH SOME WEAKNESS ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COOL POOL ALOFT DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARMER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AREAS SEEING SHOWERS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY WARMING INTO THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY... LONG WAVE PATTERN ADVERTISED BY MODELS SHOWED TROFING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A BROAD SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT THE THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR FRONT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY GETS HEADING INTO A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE THE CHANCE WILL BE LIMITED TO AIRMASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS...MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION THAT MAY SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS KLWB BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. NOTE...THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE ASOS AT KBLF CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE END OF MAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THIS TAF. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE BLUEFIELD...KBLF...ASOS MAY ALTERNATE BETWEEN AVAILABLE AND UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...CF/PC SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...AMS/PC EQUIPMENT...DS

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