Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010814 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 414 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW WORKS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE TO BRING WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 350 AM EDT FRIDAY... FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF MAY...EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTS EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FAR SW VA/NW NC MTNS IN THE DRY POCKET...THOUGH NOT RAIN FREE WITH BEST LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT KEEPING THE HIGHER THREAT OF RAIN FROM THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH ROANOKE/BLACKSBURG TO LYH/DAN. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL SPIN MORE SHOWERS TOWARD THE HIGHLANDS INTO SE WV...SOUTH INTO THE NRV AND ROANOKE VALLEYS TO THE FOOTHILLS OF VA. ALL MODELS SEEM TO EVEN DEPICT THIS FAIRLY WELL. INSTABILITY TO BE LIMITED BUT AGAIN COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH ENOUGH LOW LVL INSTABILITY MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDER ONCE AGAIN IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE ALLEGHANYS TO SOUTHSIDE VA...AS GFS MUCAPE SHOWING 300-1000 J/KG AT 18Z...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE T. COULD EVEN SEE SMALL HAIL AGAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE STAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST. TONIGHT...THE GFS/ECMWF SHIFT MAIN RAIN THREAT OFFSHORE WITH POCKETS OF NRLY FLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE BETWEEN THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANYS. AM LEANING TOWARD DRIER SOLUTION BUT KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING IN THE MTNS TO BLUE RIDGE SIMILAR TO NAM LOCATION.. THEN OVERNIGHT CLEARING TAKES PLACE WITH NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR IN WITH SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY DAWN SATURDAY. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOWER TO MID 40S MTNS TO UPPER 40S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY... LOOKING TO SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER OVER THOSE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR INCREASED SUNSHINE AND THEREFORE STRONGER HEATING. MODELS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...MAYBE EVEN A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING LATE AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW TO MID 70S FURTHER EAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS. WILL ALSO SEE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS PASS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW TO OUR AREA. BOTH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED WARMUP FOR THE MID ATLANTIC THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MONDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER STILL...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE LIKELY TOUCHING 80 DEGREES. MAY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EITHER DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS OUR AREA. WARMER OVERNIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE...WITH LOWS WARMING A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT SUCH THAT MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT 50S FOR LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MAJORITY OF THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AN UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SHIFTING A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION. WHILE ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...AN ELONGATED TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING PROGRESSIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WITHIN THIS REGIME. FOR PRECIPITATION...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL JUST BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS HERE WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...WITH THE APPROACH...AND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL...OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY... SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE MTNS OF SW VA INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER SHOULD AFFECT BLF-BCB-DAN THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NE TO ROA/LYH AND POSSIBLY LWB THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT GOING TO GET CUTE WITH THE INS AND OUTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND KEEP IT MOSTLY LIGHT. FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 4-5KFT MSL...SO MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH ICING. THE TERMINALS SHOULD GO TO SUB VFR IF NOT ALREADY THERE AS LOW LVLS MOISTEN UP. KEEPING SOME FOG IN AS WELL ACROSS THE MTNS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN CIGS TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL TREND THAT WAY...WHICH WE ALREADY HAD IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS. THE RAIN SHOWER SWING EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD BE GONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES TURNING TO VFR...THOUGH NW FLOW IS GOING TO PERSIST INTO THE MTNS...SO BLF APPEARS THEY MAY KEEP MVFR CIGS THRU THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR WINDS/CIGS AND MEDIUM ON RAINFALL INTENSITY AND VSBYS. A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PATTERN CHANCE WILL TAKE PLACE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG IN THE USUAL RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMER AND MOISTER AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY... PART FOR THE UPPER AIR ARRIVED LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND TECHNICIANS WILL WORK ON GETTING THIS FIXED TO HAVE A 12Z UPPER AIR RUN TODAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...KK/PW/WP EQUIPMENT...WP

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