Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 011955 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 355 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING SPOTTY SHOWER MAINLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY BREEZY BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT VALLEYS SHOULD REMAIN DECOUPLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST...LOWS IN THE 30S. THE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST TO START THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...PROMOTING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PENDING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 60S... POTENTIALLY TESTING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... OUR AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE PLAY FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WARM OUR TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ON FRIDAY AND KEEP US IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTHWEST THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS NOT TRIVIAL AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF BRISK EARLY SPRING ENERGY. THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AT OR BELOW 500J/KG LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS/CHANCE OF THUNDER AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY THREE SEVERE OUTLOOK WHICH PLACES THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR A WIND THREAT. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND A MINIMAL SLUSHY COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY EXPECT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT CONDITIONS WILL CERTAINLY BE QUITE GUSTY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND FEATURE SOME FLAT RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND LOOKS TO KEEP OUR AREA IN THE MILD AIR AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH QUIET WEATHER AND THE START OF A WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH AS THE AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN US BECOMES WARMER AND MORE MOIST THANKS TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR BOUTS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS WE GO OUT IN TIME MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEMS BUT IT APPEARS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL NOT AFFECT OUR REGION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS. IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING ON THURSDAY...AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A 40-50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET...3-5KFT AGL...DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...BECOMING NUMEROUS FRIDAY EVENING... IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...PRESSURE RISES RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUPPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS...BUT REMAINING NEARLY CALM IN THE VALLEYS. SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...PM

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