Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 270817 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 417 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING KEEPING THE REGION IN A COOL AIR MASS. LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY TO BRING OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY... UPPER PATTERN SHOWS AMPLIFIED YET SPLIT FLOW WITH LOW OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WSW INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE REX BLOCK OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH OVER THE CORNBELT AND LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. DURING THE DAY THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE PROVIDING INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRISK CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. THIS MORE LIKE A WINTER PATTERN. NOT SEEING A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE/LIFT BUT THE UPPER VORT SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH IN STRENGTH TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE MTNS OF SE WV WITH SPRINKLES AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS IF ENOUGH SUN CAN WARM THE LOW LVLS TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES. ATTM...THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW SO NO THUNDER OR WINTRY WX IN THE GRIDS. TONIGHT...THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH OVER THE MTNS AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT. SKIES CLEAR SO TEMPS SHOULD BE DROPPING TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 30S MTNS...TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. HAVE ONLY THE HIGHEST RIDGES OF SE WV/MT ROGERS CLOSE TO 32F. WHILE A FEW POCKET OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE...THINK ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT INHIBITS FROST FORMATION. THOSE WHO LIVE IN DEEPER/SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL BE PRONE TO FROST. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY... GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR IN BRINGING THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY EAST FROM THE OK/TX AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE TN VALLEY BY WED MORNING. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUE-WED...THEN SHIFT OFF THE GA COAST BY WED EVENING. WHILE THIS OCCURS A NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST NORTH OF US. MODELS KEEP THESE TWO STREAMS SPLIT...BUT ENOUGH OF INVERTED TROUGH IN THE AREA PLUS ATLANTIC FLOW TO THROW RAINFALL INTO AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY. NUDGED POPS UP AND HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT NORTHEAST OF LYH. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE GFS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN LOW THAN OTHER GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE DRIVES THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH AND BRINGS THE SFC LOW NE ALONG THE NC COAST. THE ECMWF MORE OPEN WILL TAKE THE LOW FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ATTM...AM COMPROMISING THE TWO AND KEEPING HIGHER POPS OVER THE SE CWA WED NIGHT. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW NORMAL WITH WEDNESDAY APPEARING THE COOLEST...THOUGH THE ERN CWA MAY STAY MILD ENOUGH WITH MID 60S...WHILE THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE ONLY GETS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND COULD BE COOLER IF RAIN MOVES IN FASTER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY... WHILE THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION OF LIFTING THE DEEP EASTERN U.S. TROF TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IN OUR FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS OF KEEPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN CLOSER TO THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CAROLINAS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS...MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...AND LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DEEPENING COASTAL SFC LOW...AND PASSING OF A WEAK UPPER VORT LOBE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS...BUMPED UP WINDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING THAT APPEARS TO WARRANT HEADLINES ATTM. AS THE DEEP SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME CLEARING FRIDAY...THEN TEMPS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 125 AM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING FROM THE NORTH SENDING DRIER AIR SOUTH INTO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE ANY MID CLOUDS IN THE DANVILLE VICINITY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING. ISSUE WILL BE ANY FOG OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS...WITH WET GROUND. BUT THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK TO RACE THE TEMPS SUCH THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION WILL STAY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG AT LEAST AT TAF SITES. WILL HAVE MVFR AT LYH/DAN/LWB AND BCB AT TIMES EARLY...TEMPO OVER BCB/LWB FOR IFR. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM OF THIS OCCURRING. ANY FOG WILL BE GONE AFTER 12Z WITH NW WINDS PICKING UP A BIT. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AT ROA/BCB. NW FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE MTNS BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OVER BLF/LWB BUT COVERAGE IS LOW TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS. KEPT THINGS VFR THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT THOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN RAIN INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. SO MUCH DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ATTM FOR FRIDAY THAT WX COULD BE CLEARING OUT ECMWF OR SUB VFR WITH SFC LOW SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...PH/RAB AVIATION...MBS/RCS/WP

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