Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010127 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 927 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY... COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES AND DEEP MIXING SUBSIDES GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. MAY STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SPEEDS REALLY DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A BAND OF SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND KBLF OVERNIGHT BUT IFFY GIVEN DRY AIR. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL TAKE A GOOD TWO DAYS TO DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR- IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 740 PM EDT TUESDAY... CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NW AND DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THUS WILL LET THE GOING RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRE AT 8 PM WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE LOW...BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JH/WP FIRE WEATHER...JH/NF/WP

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