Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 010605 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 205 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT RIDES UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS...THEN A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 900 PM EDT TUESDAY... COLD FRONT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NW AND DIMINISHING ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL COOLING AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MORNING. HOWEVER MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS NORTH AND WITH SOME LIGHT MIXING PERSISTING APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY GET HUNG UP IN THE 40S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS SO BUMPED UP LOWS A CAT OR SO. OTRW CLOUDS LOOK QUITE LIMITED GIVEN ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE SPILLING IN UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SUPPORTS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH MID DECK OVER THE FAR WEST AS WELL AS THE PIEDMONT TO KEEP THINGS MORE OF THE PC VARIETY THERE THROUGH DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY... GOING TO GET GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TIL ABOUT DUSK OVERALL...THOUGH RIDGES ARE GOING TO STAY A LITTLE GUSTY INTO LATE EVENING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE WV AREA BY DAWN. NOT SEEING MUCH ON OUR RADAR BUT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ACROSS ERN WV PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL SWING SE AND DRY UP WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH SECOND AREA OF CU APPEARS TO GATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL EXPECT A BRIEF COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT LATER TONIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S GREENBRIER VALLEY EAST TO THE HIGHLANDS...TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. ENTERING WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHICH THEN SHIFTS TO THE COAST BY DUSK. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S MOUNTAINS...TO LOWER TO MID 60S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 345 PM EST TUESDAY... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET...LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S. FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PERMITTING WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR FAST TRACK OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THEY TRAVERSE THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS...MODELS TRACKING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ONE OF WHICH TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...AND A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL EXIT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY...CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAYS WAVE...BUT THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY TAP A FEED OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. ATTM MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE WEIGHTED THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF POTENTIAL TO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH READINGS IN THE 60S/70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS...SEASONAL FOR EARLY APRIL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH-EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL AND THE POST HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...ONLY MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...RECOVERING TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SUN-MON. A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK EARLY SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY. MILD...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THIS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE CONUS RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND CONTINUING TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...ALTHOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW 20+KT GUSTS THROUGH 01/10Z AT PLACES LIKE KROA/KHSP/KTNB. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL PUSH TO THE COAST THIS EVENING...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA BY DAWN THURSDAY AS MOIST AIR RETURNS UP THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST REGION ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WP NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JH/NF

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