Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 200932 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 532 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WE WILL THEN SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING WITH ANOTHER FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY... THERE ARE LINGERING HYDRO ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA UNTIL AROUND 9AM. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED WITH ADJUSTMENTS MADE ACCORDINGLY. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MESO MODELS DISSIPATE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT FIRING LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION... ESPECIALLY FROMT HE BLUE RIDGE EAST. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 1000J/KG TO 1500J/KG WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GIVE US 0/6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40KTS TO 50KTS WITH A SOMEWHAT LINEAR HODOGRAPH. THUS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND THE SPC SLIGHT RISK LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET. WILL BE ANTICIPATING STORM CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO LINEAR ELEMENTS TO PRODUCE A WIND THREAT...AND THE MORE VIGOROUS CELLS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. WHILE SWATS REMAIN HIGH BELIEVE ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED AND FURTHER EAST WHICH SHOULD HELP AVOID AGGRAVATING THE HYDRO SITUATION. ENOUGH INGREDIENTS FOR A BUSY AFTERNOON ON RADAR.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 525 AM EDT MONDAY... BEHIND THE FRONT WE START TO SETTLE INTO A COOLER...BREEZY...AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A BROAD CLOSED LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY TONIGHT AND TAKE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...LEAVING SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. COULD SEE THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF COOKING UP SOME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT BELIEVE THE POPS ARE TOO SMALL TO MENTION SO WILL KEEP THINGS UNDER 15 PERCENT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT A MENTION OF THUNDER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WHAT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY... BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AND DOMINATES THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER ESE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN AN UNSTABLE/UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE DISTURBANCES...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT THAT POPS CANNOT BE DROPPED REALLY AT ANY TIME THE OVERALL TREND IS TO PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHC POPS...HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THE DRIEST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...NO REAL CLEAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT FOR FROST/FREEZE BECAUSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND CLOUDS. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 110 AM EDT MONDAY... BULK OF THE RAIN IS HEADING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS LIGHT RAIN TRACKS TO THE NORTH BY 08Z...THEN CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER...DEFINITELY BY 12Z MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED AVIATION... VFR RETURNS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS. THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...RCS

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