Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 030541 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 141 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY... 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST VA EARLY THIS MORNING FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT- WAVES TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT AND NEAR EARLY MAY CLIMO NORMALS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM EDT SATURDAY... FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME ZONAL AND LIGHT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED FOR OUR AREA...TAKING ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL MAKE FOR SLOW CELL MOVEMENT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A REPORT OR TWO OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FADE AROUND SUNSET EACH EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. STRONG HEATING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR SUMMERLIKE AFTERNOONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. AS SUCH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A THREAT FOR FROST DURING THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... TREND OF WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A TROPICAL LOW PUSHING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY TO STALL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL NOT AFFECT OUR WEATHER DIRECTLY WITH RAINFALL...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL DRAW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA...AND APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK...SO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS OF MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WILL LINGER IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LEADING TO SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NOTE...THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE ASOS AT KBLF CONTINUES TO BE SPORADICALLY OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE END OF MAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO BLF TAF. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE BLUEFIELD...KBLF...ASOS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AVAILABLE AND UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...KK/PC EQUIPMENT...AMS

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