Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 310129 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 929 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 905 PM EDT MONDAY... WINDS QUICKLY DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT LACK OF DEEPER MIXING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER ALREADY SEEING SOME SHEARED MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE WITH THE UPSTREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM. THINK MUCH OF THIS SHOULD FADE UPON ENCOUNTERING THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN ON EVENING SOUNDINGS SO ONLY BOOSTED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH/WEST PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. OTRW GIVEN BETTER DECOUPLING POTENTIAL IN THE VALLEYS...AND LESS ALOFT UNDER THE BACKING 25-30 KT 85H JET...LOWERED TEMPS A CAT OR SO IN THE LOW SPOTS AND BOOSTED CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES AT ELEVATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS 300 PM EDT MONDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OF 30-35KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH A 40 TO 45 KNOT 850MB JET PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WILL SLIDE EAST. LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE NEW JERSEY COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE GUSTS WILL COULD REACH 30 MPH...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COORDINATED WITH DOF AND ISSUED AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW TUESDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE WV/FAR SW VA MTNS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT. WEDNESDAY...RIDGE ALOFT TRACKS EAST INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS WITH SRN JET SENDING MOISTURE INTO TX/LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AS WE HEAD INTO WED NIGHT-THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW AMPS UP BUT EXPECT DRIER LOW LVLS TO SLOW DOWN ONSET OF RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER SUPPORT ALLOWS FOR MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO STAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL APPEARS THE BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MTNS...WITH LESS EAST. TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS/GREENBRIER...TO UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EXCEPT A FEW 50S HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHANYS/SOUTHEAST WV. CLOUDS INCREASING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED NIGHT WILL BE HOLDING A LID ON TEMPS...THOUGH SOME SLOW DOWN IN ONSET OF CLOUDS MAY ALLOW TEMPS FOR OUR NRN CWA TO FALL FASTER IN THE EVENING...WITH MID 30S FOR LOWS...WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER THOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR RUSHING IN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEST TO LOWER 70S EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 50S MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY... NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SHOWERY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD FRONT HEADS EAST INTO THE MTNS BY FRIDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. STILL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR SLOWER PROGRESS. LEANED TOWARD THE BLEND OF THE GFS/ECM. ECMWF FORMING STRONG LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTY WINDS ARRIVING POST FRONTAL SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT DRY OUT SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. APPEARS NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL BE SYSTEM NEXT TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 640 PM EDT MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH WESTERLY WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS AFTER SUNSET. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DIVING IN FROM THE NW MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT ANY CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7K FT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AGAIN TOPPING 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. HOWEVER OTHER THAN FOR SOME UPSLOPE DRIVEN LATE DAY MVFR/VFR CIGS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS KBLF/KLWB VICINITY...CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN VFR UNDER LIGHTER WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST... COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR IN LOWER CIGS/SHRA FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY OSCILLATES ACROSS THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST ON GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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AS OF 915 PM EDT MONDAY... DEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING MIXING TO JUST BELOW 10K FT ALLOWED HUMIDITY TO AGAIN PLUMMET LATE MONDAY WITH 10 HOUR FUELS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 6-9 PERCENT IN VIRGINIA...AND 10-13 IN NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF THE RIDGES LIKELY SEEING HUMIDITY STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE MAXING OUT IN THE 60-75 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FINER FUELS WILL SEE RAPID DRYING TAKE PLACE AS WINDS AND HEATING COMBINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MIXING. THIS MAY LOWER 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE TO CRITICAL LEVELS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE RIDGETOP WINDS COULD AVERAGE AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND FUELS WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER FOR VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ESPECIALLY WITHIN A 2-5 HOUR WINDOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK/RAB NEAR TERM...JH/KK SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/KK FIRE WEATHER...JH/KK

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