Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 031823 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 223 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM EDT SUNDAY... 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST VA THIS MORNING FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE DAY. SOME UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT. WITH THE 10 AM UPDATE TEMPS WERE BUMPED A DEGREE OR TWO WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT REMAINS TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH SEASONAL LOWS IN 40S TO LOW 50S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 5F-10F ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COOL POOL WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK EACH DAY...SO ANY STORMS FORMING WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY... TREND OF WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A TROPICAL LOW PUSHING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY TO STALL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL NOT AFFECT OUR WEATHER DIRECTLY WITH RAINFALL...THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL DRAW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA...AND APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK...SO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT/LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS OF MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 80S FOR THE PIEDMONT EACH DAY...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY WILL BRING DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WILL LINGER IN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH SOUTHWEST BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT. CU FIELD WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET...LEAVING ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER MAY SEE A FEW PATCHES OF BR DEVELOP TOWARD DAWN MONDAY. CU FIELD WILL REDEVELOP DURING LATE MORNING MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SPOTTY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. NOTE...THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE ASOS AT KBLF CONTINUES TO BE SPORADICALLY OUT OF SERVICE. REPAIRS MAY NOT BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE END OF MAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO BLF TAF. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACK DOOR FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT THE BLUEFIELD...KBLF...ASOS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AVAILABLE AND UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...NF/PC SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...NF AVIATION...JR/NF EQUIPMENT...AMS

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