Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 241626
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1026 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COOL MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD UPPER TROF IS PARKED OVER THE ERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND THE PACNW STATES THIS MORNING. A SHORT WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THIS TROF IS CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THRU THE CWA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE IS
INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND EXPECT IT TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS IT CROSSES THE CWA.

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE NWRN CWA THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE TO CONTINUE N AND W OF ABOUT SLC INTO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING WITH THE FRONT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
HAS SUPPRESSED ACTIVITY S AND E OF SLC BUT THIS ENDS AFTER NOON
AND EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ACROSS THESE
AREAS.

THIS WAVE INTRODUCES THE COLDER AIR WITH THE MAIN TROF INTO THE
CWA BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY UP AROUND 8000 FT WITH THE PRECIP
THIS EVE AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT TRAVEL.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF AT THIS
TIME IS FORECAST TO DRAG THE ENTIRE TROF INLAND TONIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH THRU SAT NIGHT WITH THE TROF
SPLITTING AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER NERN AZ BY MIDDAY SUN.
THE INCREASING DYNAMICS OVER OUR CWA KEEPS SHOWERS ACTIVE ON SAT
WITH A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AS THE MAIN UPPER COLD POOL ARRIVES.

THIS COLD POOL MODIFIES QUITE A BIT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 6000 FT OR MAYBE EVEN HIGHER BUT
AMOUNTS ABOVE THAT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AND COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. AT THIS TIME THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVISORY
LEVEL EVENT AND WOULD EXPECT TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNTIL EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

UPDATED EARLIER TO RAISE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING
AND MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. ALSO
LOWERED POPS FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING AND ADJUSTED SKY
COVER A BIT. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
22Z WITH A SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST EXPECTED AT THAT TIME. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY SHOWERS COULD
DISRUPT THE PREVAILING WINDS AFTER 18Z. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY 22Z BUT THESE STORMS COULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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