Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251026
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
426 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)...THE INCREASING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE PAST FEW DAYS OVER UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
WILL REACH THEIR PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A MOIST PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS MORNING...THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IS GETTING ITS LAST BREAK BEFORE THE BEST
PART OF THE STORM LATE TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH
STILL HAS ONGOING SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THIS
MORNING AND MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH...AS A STRONGER LOBE OF THE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE LAS
VEGAS AREA. THAT SAID...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GOOD
CONTINUATION INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

WITH A MILD AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...SNOW
LEVELS TODAY ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8000
FEET...WITH THE BEST ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS IS WHEN THERE IS A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS AND ROAD IMPACTS. THAT SAID...IT IS NOT A SLAM
DUNK THAT THE AMOUNTS OR IMPACTS WILL BE ADVISORY WORTHY...SO HAVE
HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES ON THIS SHIFT...AND WILL GIVE THE
DAY SHIFT THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS AND DISCUSS
IMPACTS WITH PARTNERS.

AFTER A GOOD PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND EXITS INTO NEW
MEXICO. POST-FRONTAL WINDS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...AND STRONGER GAP WINDS COULD DEVELOP IN WASHINGTON
COUNTY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT FOR
THIS AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FEATURE FOR
POTENTIAL FUTURE WIND HEADLINES.

MONDAY WILL START THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND WARMING TREND...AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT
UNTIL IT IS CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY 12Z TUESDAY.



.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z TUESDAY)... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE A STEEP WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE BETWEEN +8C AND +10C.

TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A RESULT. COMBINATION OF INCREASING
SOUTH FLOW AND WARMING ALOFT COULD BRING 80S TO THE WASATCH FRONT
FRIDAY.

DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT KEPT POPS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS QUITE A WINDOW FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...GFS
SUGGESTS FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE EUROPEAN IS LATER DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR ALOFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
SUGGESTING THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COOL AND MOIST PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM CROSSES OVERHEAD. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7500 FEET TODAY FALLING
TO ABOUT 6500 FEET SUNDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS THIS WEEK PROMPTING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AND DRYING TREND DURING THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS UNDER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BEGINNING EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS TO THE AIRFIELD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SCHOENING/ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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