Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 162210
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
410 PM MDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
SPINNING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL
BEGIN A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND IS
RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. ADDITIONALLY...THIS FEATURE HAS INDUCED MORE
OF AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN UT...AND COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ALONG PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UT. HAVE INCLUDED SOME GUSTIER WINDS
NEAR THE CANYONS OF THE WASATCH FRONT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DONT
EXPECT THESE TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. MEANWHILE FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28F OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST VALLEYS AND HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY KIND OF FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO CO...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS WELL...RESULTING IN A
WARMING TREND AREAWIDE.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY PULL EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY LEAVING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE GFS AND EC
HAVE DIFFERED IN RECENT RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE AS WELL AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS SUCH HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...SUNDAYS WAVE WEAKENS AND MIGRATES
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH HEADS OFF INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CONTINUING WARMING TREND
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY...OUT
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TRULY ACTIVE DAYS PRECIPITATION-WISE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION.

CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCE LARGE CLOSED
LOWS OVER BOTH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH
IS A PATTERN JUST ASKING FOR INCONSISTENT MODEL RUNS AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FEET
AT THE SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A PASSING
SHOWER COULD MOVE OVERHEAD...WHICH WOULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINAL. WIND DIRECTION AFTER 04Z IS LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MOST LIKELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IS
SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT PERIODS OF STEADY EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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