Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 030150 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
750 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD AND INCREASINGLY MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPE
RANGES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTH...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
PROVO. WITH LIMITED SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE FORMED
HAVE LACKED ANY ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING THIS
MORNING AT SLC...THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MICROBURSTS. A FEW WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
NEAR 50 MPH IN COLLAPSING CELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

A REPEAT PERFORMANCE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY AGAIN ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE TO
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING STRUCTURE ONCE
AGAIN. THUS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL AGAIN BE BRIEF...GUSTY
WINDS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL
LOW EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN JET IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS SHEAR WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY REAL ORGANIZATION OF
THE CONVECTION...BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AGAIN...ENOUGH
LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.

SO NEEDLESS TO SAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY)...AS THE TROUGH FROM EARLY IN THE
WEEK EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP PACIFIC
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO SPIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AND IS
THE MAJOR FOCUS OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED.

THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE WET PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEK. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PARTS OF WHICH SHOULD STILL GET
SHOWERS EACH DAY EVEN IF THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS OVER NEVADA
MIDWEEK. HAVE LARGELY MAINTAINED OR SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE POPS FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH RELATIVELY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

AN INITIAL COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST UTAH ON
WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL IN MANY
LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...MUCH THE CWA ACTUALLY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL THE LOW MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE LOW SWINGING OVER
UTAH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EJECTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
SATURDAY. HAVE GENERALLY COOLED TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED...AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SALT LAKE CITY
TERMINAL UNTIL ABOUT 05-06Z THEN SWITCH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL
08-10Z AND COULD BECOME GUSTY. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
PASSING SHOWERS WILL BRING ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN ABOUT 04-09Z. ANY
CIGS WILL REMAIN ABV 7000 FT AGL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...KRUSE/SCHOENING
AVIATION...WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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