Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 040731
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 04 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY AND TUESDAY...

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. TODAY AND TUESDAY...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S...

THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA TODAY AND WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR NORTHWARD AND LIFT IT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH, A SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS ALSO FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. PLEASE REFER TO THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE SPC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
TO THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST, REACHING  INTO THE 80S IN MANY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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