Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FXUS01 KWBC 050729
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 05 2015 - 12Z THU MAY 07 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS
U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE SPC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN ACROSS MANY OF THE SAME AREAS AS HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON
GROUND THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN SATURATED BY PREVIOUS RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A
RESULT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY SHIFT TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, WITH A SURFACE DRY LINE ACTING AS A FOCUS.

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN PLACE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW AREAS OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED. THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE WILL BE DETERMINED BY RELATIVELY
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVELS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE IN
THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVE INLAND.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.