Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 251607
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
907 AM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WERE GENERALLY
IN THE 60S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE READINGS ARE MOSTLY ON
TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IF WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH 19Z...BECOMING
WLY/SWLY AT 15-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 26/03Z.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO
THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA TODAY AS
IT APPROACHES. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
USHER IN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 7-8KFT
EARLY SUNDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDING OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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