Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270408
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
908 PM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND STARTING MONDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA...ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST. THE GUSTY WINDS TODAY DIED DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST
LOCATIONS NOW SEEING WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
WERE MUCH COOLER OVER SATURDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 12 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...TUCSON ONLY REACHING A HIGH OF 73
DEGREES TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. MONDAY EXPECT
JUMP IN TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF A WARMING TREND...THOUGH MONDAY`S
HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL STILL BE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS
TIME.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/06Z. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
CEILINGS RANGING FROM 7-12K FT AGL. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING EAST IN THE EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS MAY
OCCUR TUESDAY...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...RIDGING BEHIND THE LOW WILL BUILD IN WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EAST OVER
CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO.

BY SATURDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS BEYOND SATURDAY...
BUT A DRY FORECAST SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE
NORMAL. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FOR NEXT SUNDAY. LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...THEN 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING THEREAFTER.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR TUCSON THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY AROUND 86 TO
87 DEGS. NORMAL LOWS AROUND 55 TO 57 DEGS.

$$

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