Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232139
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES LEFT BEHIND FOR FRIDAY.  ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY
WINDS...COOL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  THEN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD 90S
LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIOUSLY MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.  LACK OF DYNAMICS AT THIS POINT AND NEED TO
WAIT FOR THE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH TO SWING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
SOLAR INSOLATION IS NOT CUTTING IT AT THE MOMENT.  TWEAKED POPS DOWN
A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND PULLED THE MENTION OF TRW THROUGH 00Z.
LEFT THE POPS ALONE FOR TONIGHT AND LEFT THE SLIGHT CHC MENTION OF A
TRW IN FOR THE 00Z-06Z HOURS AS THE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER SOME
DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING VORT MAX.  WE WILL SEE IF IT HAS
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OUT OF THIS AIR MASS.

BEYOND THAT...THE SYSTEM IS EXITING TO THE NE FRIDAY SLOWLY TAKING
THE MOISTURE WITH IT.  MINIMAL THREAT OF ANY PRECIP OTHER THEN THE
NORTHERN MOST MOUNTAINS.  WITH BE A COOL DAY WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND SETTLE OVER AZ EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY IF THE CURRENT MODELED
SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT.  HAVE RAISED POPS...INCREASED CLOUDS
AND TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
IF MODELS CONTINUE ALONG THIS PATH WILL NEED TO TO ADJUST EVEN
FURTHER TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION A DECENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EXPECTED UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.  BY THURSDAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ WITH A SHOT AT A FEW 100
DEGREE READINGS WEST IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/23Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-9K FT AGL. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF KTUS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG AND GUSTY SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND THRU
24/03Z...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 18-25 KTS...AND GUSTS BETWEEN
30-35 KTS. AFT 24/03Z...DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND...AND WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TIL 24/16Z. BETWEEN 24/16Z AND 24/23Z...
SWLY/WLY SURFACE WIND AT 11-18 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS TONIGHT...
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN COCHISE COUNTY...WHERE SOME AREAS COULD
SEE WINDS SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DRY CONDITIONS...WITH MARKEDLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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