Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 252227
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
327 PM MST SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 25/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
WEAK RIDGING TO OUR EAST WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD
FROM TUCSON NORTH AND EAST...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
FARTHER TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...UTAH AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN COLORADO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FOR MY FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT WILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY FORECAST AREA FROM TUCSON NORTH INTO PINAL
COUNTY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 7000-7500 FEET EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT EXPECT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE AROUND 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SANTA CATALINAS AND RINCONS OF EASTERN
PIMA COUNTY AND THE GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM COUNTY.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY BUT THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER
BACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
IS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RESULTING IN LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT DRY ELSEWHERE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM RIDGING WILL NOSE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY AND OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISCREPANCIES...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE
REGARDLESS OF THE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 8-10K FT AGL
WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 20K FT
AGL. SURFACE WIND WLY/SWLY AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KALK AND KDUG. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KTS AFTER 26/03Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS
EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES OF -SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST TO THE NORTH OF A KTUS-KSAD LINE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH AND A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE...WHILE SHOWER CHANCES ARE BEST NORTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
TUCSON TO SAFFORD. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME SPOTTY AND MARGINAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF COCHISE COUNTY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS HOVERING
RIGHT AROUND 15 PCT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE APPROACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MOLLERE

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