Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 050945
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE WRN CONUS THIS MORNING
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NERN ARIZONA. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FILL AND MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPSTREAM COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIG OVER SRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW.

MEANWHILE...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR FURTHER SWWD TO NEAR THE TUCSON METRO AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS GRAHAM
COUNTY. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY WED AS THE COLD UPPER
LOW PRESENTLY OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NW DIGS INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. A TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME BREEZINESS WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS THUR-FRI AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN NW OF THE AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
SAT-MON. EXPECT LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR THRU SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA FURTHER SWWD TO
NEAR THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS NEAR KTUS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
ARIZONA THIS MORNING MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
LATE TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND
FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS WILL OCCUR DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.CLIMATE...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE WEATHER RECORDS FOR TUCSON...
RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT THE OFFICIAL RECORDING LOCATION ON MAY
2ND...3RD AND 4TH. THE 0.03 INCH OF RAIN RECORDED AT THE TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON MAY 4 TIES FOR FIFTH PLACE FOR THE MOST
RAINFALL ON RECORD FOR THE DATE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

DISCUSSION...FRANCIS
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA



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