Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 161715
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1015 AM MST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH NOT QUITE AS MUCH WIND AS
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. A LATE SEASON
FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE...SANTA
CRUZ...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. NOT QUITE AS COLD FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN US HAS SETTLED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
BROAD NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE MORNING SOUNDING IN TUCSON INDICATED A VERY DRY AIR
COLUMN WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AT OR ABOVE 8500 FEET.
THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREAS FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
GREENLEE...SOUTHERN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COCHISE
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT STEADILY EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND CLEAR
SKIES...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. READINGS
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER VALLEY AREAS
OF GRAHAM...COCHISE...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. AGRICULTURE
INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD/COOL TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.

MID RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AND REIGN SUPREME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY SKC AREA-WIDE
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLY AOA 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE AZ/NM
BORDER. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASING AGAIN AFT
16/18Z MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF KTUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY TAKE
ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH SPEEDS OF 12-15 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS
FROM KTUS WEST. NEAR THE KSAD...KOLS...AND KDUG TERMINALS...WINDS
WILL BE 15-22 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 26 AND 32 KTS. WINDS
WILL RELAX AFT 17/03Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER EASTERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
IN COCHISE COUNTY. RH VALUES ARE STARTING IN THE TEENS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...AND THE ADDITION OF THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COCHISE COUNTY IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 152.
THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 152 FROM 1100
LST THIS MORNING UNTIL 1900 LST THIS EVENING. FINE FUELS WILL BE AT
THE GREATEST RISK DURING THIS EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL
BELOW CRITERIA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE TODAY...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY WITH FAR
LESS WIND EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A
VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ152.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ503-507>509.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.