Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302133
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE CALENDAR CHANGES FROM
APRIL TO MAY. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...APRIL 2015 WILL GO OUT ON A VERY WARM NOTE WITH HIGHS
TODAY RUNNING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THE WARMTH IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE DESERT SW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE TODAY. HIGHS ON THE
FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
AZ/NM BORDER. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDER
BOOMER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS ON FRIDAY. SLIGHT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESS
VALUES FALL A BIT. A BIT MORE COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH A EASTERN PACIFIC TROF WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE VALLEYS AND CHANCE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. POPS WERE INCREASED A
BIT WITH ADDITIONAL INCREASES LIKELY AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z. MOSTLY SKC WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND DIURNAL...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS TODAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THESE
VALUES WILL RISE MODESTLY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.  A WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS FROM TUCSON NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95
DEGREE HIGH OF 2015 ON EITHER TODAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE 1ST 95 DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE
AVERAGE DATE HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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